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Random Conspiracy Theories

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jacdaw Aug 2024 4:33pm, 25 Aug 2024 4,560 posts	Quote Pin jacdaw The Bayesian sinking could be put down to chance (did you see what I did there?), but the death of Mike Lynch's co-defendant, Stephen Chamberlain in a car accident, at about the same time is perfect fuel for a conspiracy theory...
EvilPixie Aug 2024 4:45pm, 25 Aug 2024 57,152 posts	Quote Pin EvilPixie ^^ I thought hmmmmm coincidence?!?!!
Rosehip Aug 2024 5:13pm, 25 Aug 2024 32,973 posts	Quote Pin Rosehip Such a shame about Stephen, he'd had a rough time of it with the court case hanging over him and was just getting back to his running - Lakeland100 DNF at Dalemain. By all accounts a nice bloke. The oddness of the coincidence struck me as soon as I saw about his accident on the local news webpage.
SailorSteve Aug 2024 5:15pm, 25 Aug 2024 2,702 posts	Quote Pin SailorSteve Agreed jac and Evil. This is a pretty good summary of the yacht tragedy. I reckon this is a pretty good summary https://www.sailingscuttlebutt.com/2024/08/23/did-social-trends-lead-to-yacht-tragedy/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook&fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR12h0FDMXHE0zN9E3wE2OVGYGMqbBpmBzAMFkscR387qSYfHw86YvelTR4_aem_N_A9mRzc3ieLclMgE_2dfw&ai=
SailorSteve Aug 2024 5:16pm, 25 Aug 2024 2,703 posts	Quote Pin SailorSteve https://www.sailingscuttlebutt.com/2024/08/23/did-social-trends-lead-to-yacht-tragedy/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook&fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR0vC0NkSyBBfhZvscz_rIFZZgU7qB8yknUbd9X2KDRT7lh-gv5dUvdIVxg_aem_3SQCL6yK9aYlCpku0MlazA&ai=
SailorSteve Aug 2024 5:17pm, 25 Aug 2024 2,704 posts	Quote Pin SailorSteve I give up. A conspiracy is preventing me from posting the link🤓
jacdaw Aug 2024 5:33pm, 25 Aug 2024 4,561 posts	Quote Pin jacdaw sailingscuttlebutt.com That one?
SailorSteve Aug 2024 6:15pm, 25 Aug 2024 2,705 posts	Quote Pin SailorSteve That’s the chap🤪
HappyG(rrr) Aug 2024 9:35pm, 25 Aug 2024 50,772 posts	Quote Pin HappyG(rrr) SailorSteve wrote:wrt to the “Bayesian” I believe that the ‘answer’ to the tragedy will be one of simple instability resulting from the disproportionately tall (= heavy) mast overpowering the disproportionately short (= high centre of gravity) raised keel, in exceptional (but obviously not unique wind conditions) leading to catastrophic downflooding, leading to negative buoyancy and therefore rapid sinking. Steve that explains the how but not the why. Why did an experienced captain have keel raised, numerous hatches not closed in forecast extreme weather? But no, I don't believe in conspiracies. Just traffic and coinciding accidents probably. Still confusing why so many mistakes on Bayesian. RIP. G
SailorSteve Aug 2024 8:56am, 26 Aug 2024 2,706 posts	Quote Pin SailorSteve Just conjecture/ informed opinion on my part but fwiw: Keel raised? Standard procedure in yachts such as this. They simply don’t use their sails very often and it’s therefore cheaper to make passages with the keel retracted. Although she sank in c50m of water, the anchorage shoals to 10m. The keel might have been raised in order for the vessel to “swing” into the relatively shallower water without fear of grounding; ditto in the case of the anchor dragging; and to facilitate easier manoeuvring in the event of the need for a rapid exit. Hatches open? A yacht at anchor in the Med (general absence of significant tidal stream or current) tends to lay “head to wind”. The primary openings of the lounges onto the deck areas open towards the stern of vessel and are therefore generally protected from the direct force of any breeze. This may have led to the practice of leaving these areas open for ease of access and to benefit from ambient breezes vs air conditioning. Other deck openings to provide access to RHIBs, tenders and other toys should be closed overnight (unless guests/crew are transiting ship/shore). With the benefits of hindsight the enquiry may reveal ‘mistakes’ that have hitherto been ‘standard operating procedures’ with tragic consequences in these circumstances. I’ll be particularly interested to see whether the enquiry offers any opinion or conclusion wrt the specific vulnerability of this yacht to the conditions experienced.