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Oct 2021
12:13pm, 26 Oct 2021
15,879 posts
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larkim
@fd79 - we don't yet know that though do we. Some countries will bear the long term costs of borrowing / debt better than others, and like it or not there is an economic cost / benefit equation to keeping someone alive. Whether that's important or not is a different judgement, but in purely financial terms that equation exists (in highly imprecise ways though).
Hypothetically, if Country A spent £100bn on preventing any cases of Covid impacting them and Country B spent £10bn on treating the pandemic as it blew through but cost them 10% of their population, Country B is £90bn better off in cash / debt terms and may have a lower long term cost of healthcare and pensions as a consequence of the "purge" of weak and vulnerable individuals. That *could* result in a more balanced economy and economic growth. (Of course, it could result in the 90% remaining being insufficient to drive growth and prosperity).
The point I was trying (badly) to make is that the long term impacts of the pandemic won't be known any time soon, and whilst we can attempt to make educated guesses about what it will do for the future, we won't be certain until we've got there.
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Oct 2021
12:48pm, 26 Oct 2021
25,688 posts
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Johnny Blaze
Agreed. Plus we don't know whether Covid has *quite* finished with us yet.
I can only hope that *next time* - and there will surely be a next time - we don't get caught napping quite as much as we did this time.
I am old enough to remember when we thought that handwashing whilst singing the National Anthem and sneezing into our elbows was going to get us through this disaster...
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Oct 2021
1:19pm, 26 Oct 2021
528 posts
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fuzzyduck79
The big problem with your country A/B scenario is nobody spent 10x as much keeping it out. It's actually quite a short sharp hit that several countries took, and they were able to return to normal in many ways much quicker. There isn't a long term scenario where you make that back. Even if the deaths were generally among older folks you end up with millions of the working population dealing with long term effects, and your children lose more education overall.
I'd liken it to either paying a (legitimate and enforceable) fine early and moving on, or deciding to mess about not paying, pretending the fine doesn't exist, and seeing the fine get bigger and bigger until finally you're forced to pay a much larger bill.
And I see no evidence at all that the UK has learned anything much for next time, which does play on my mind looking to the future and thinking about where I want to be next time this happens.
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Oct 2021
1:28pm, 26 Oct 2021
4,578 posts
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Dave W
There can be no long term planning for anything whilst Johnson is the PM.
He's like a kid playing football, forever just running after the ball.
No strategic thinking from him, despite his "classical" education.
So unsuited to run a country. But he "Got Brexit Done", so that's okay then.
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Oct 2021
1:33pm, 26 Oct 2021
25,689 posts
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Johnny Blaze
Also agreed. I rather think that the trolley still thinks herd immunity was worth a shot from the off and it was only those pesky scientists who nixed his plan.
The four point plan seems to be:
1 Be prepared (we weren't)
2 Lockdown/TTI early (we didn't/couldn't)
3 Lockdown hard (we did, but then we didn't but then we did but also we never really did as far as incoming people were concerned oh well it's just too hard and we are too advanced and densely populated a country to do it anyway - let's exclude countries like Germany, South Korea, China and Japan etc from that argument)
4 Erm... that's it
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Oct 2021
1:34pm, 26 Oct 2021
25,690 posts
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Johnny Blaze
Yes, Dave. I spent quite a bit of time on the touchline watching Number One son's team play exactly like that. Galacticos they weren't.
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Oct 2021
1:36pm, 26 Oct 2021
1,944 posts
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Mushroom
The letter from Johnson's teacher suggests he thought it was all a bit beneath him them too...
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Oct 2021
1:36pm, 26 Oct 2021
1,945 posts
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Mushroom
*then..
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Oct 2021
12:21pm, 27 Oct 2021
25,691 posts
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Johnny Blaze
Things that are unlikely to get a mention by the Chancellor today:
Impact of Brexit on exports
Impact of Brexit on imports
Impact of Brexit on inward investment
Likely impact of new import checks
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Oct 2021
12:28pm, 27 Oct 2021
3,890 posts
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J2R
No, JB, it'll be all about 'optimism' today.
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Fantasy General Election
Jul 2024