|
Sep 2017
2:47pm, 25 Sep 2017
731 posts
|
Daz Love
Just checked and itclearly says FINAL eight weeks! (Should have read it)
Just done it for my VLM attempt this year
Distance/week: 28.75 miles
Training pace: 0:07:58 min/mile
Predicted marathon pace: 0:07:46 min/mile
Predicted marathon time: 3:23:57
That's why I blew up trying to run a 3:10 and ended on 3:44  (I did know that anyway!)
|
|
Sep 2017
2:48pm, 25 Sep 2017
2,828 posts
|
larkim
WW - when I saw your summary my first reaction was "well, that makes it look like 3:20 is on for me", I hadn't noticed your reference to 3:16. 12 weeks ago I'd have snapped your hand off for that, but today...I've come a long way since then and I know that the theme of my taper madness (apart from scouring the web for long range weather forecasts!) is going to be "Do I run 7:23 all the way and aim to scrape under 3:15, or do I run 7:15-7:20s and leave a little in the pocket for a 24/25 mile slow down off pace." Or even "Do I head out at 7:30s and hope to bring it back faster". I know deep down what I'll be doing - and that's sticking to the 3:15 pacer I think. I have some plans which involve watching the 3:15 pacer, giving them a minute once they've cross the line, and the tracking them all the way at a consistent distance , but I doubt I'll be cocky enough to try that on the day.
|
|
Sep 2017
2:49pm, 25 Sep 2017
732 posts
|
Daz Love
Just done for my only other Marathon. MK back in 2015.
Distance/week: 29.15 miles
Training pace: 0:07:22 min/mile
Predicted marathon pace: 0:07:26 min/mile
Predicted marathon time: 3:15:02
I managed a 3:10 that day.
|
|
Sep 2017
2:50pm, 25 Sep 2017
27,437 posts
|
HappyG(rrr)
If I do less ar*ing about in my taper, my pace might actually increase. Maybe that's the answer...?!
Daz, I would presume the sensible answer would be No. It would be your average distance and average pace in your Peak Training Period e.g. weeks 2-10 in a 12 week programme or weeks 6 - 15 in an 18 week programme? G
|
|
Sep 2017
2:52pm, 25 Sep 2017
4,827 posts
|
chunkywizard
3:24? I'd be disappointed with that. I do know I run my slow runs a lot slower than most folks around here which will obviously affect the prediction a lot. When I have a mo I'll do the sums for Chester last year and see if it would have worked then.
|
|
Sep 2017
2:52pm, 25 Sep 2017
733 posts
|
Daz Love
Thats what I originally though G but it does say Enter values below based on the FINAL EIGHT WEEKS leading up to your marathon. Now it could mean final eight weeks of proper training.
I have done mine based on 8 weeks being right upto race day.
|
|
Sep 2017
3:02pm, 25 Sep 2017
2,829 posts
|
larkim
I'm now having an interesting time trawling through WW's training log history.
First observation is that you used to have HRM data, which I don't think you bother with now. But in the run up to April 2010 (when I'm reading your prediction as being not a million miles off where I am now) you were MP'ing at 160+ BPM. Your mileage for that time was quite similar to what I'm doing at the moment, but my BPM would be 150+ (and potentially a bit lower) certainly at the outset. Not sure though if we're talking similar HRR values etc though.
Second observation is about your spreadsheet values - the -3, -2, -1 month figures are straight from your summary log aren't they? So, for example, Jan 2010 was 178, Feb 2010 168, Mar 2010 207 - are those the values you're feeding into your calculator? Just curious, because (for example) the VLM was at the end of April, so the 553 miles you've shown in that table exclude the miles in April. Are they excluded from your calcs / predictor?
|
|
Sep 2017
3:03pm, 25 Sep 2017
27,438 posts
|
HappyG(rrr)
larks, can I offer a suggestion for your race day pacing approach? Tell me if you want this as fmail. Or not at all!
Right, I've looked at VLM2013. Perfect training, prefect build up (PBs in 5K, 10K, half), perfect race day 2:57:37. I did 67 mpw ave for the 8 weeks before taper, 9:00 ave = 3:17. to that predictor! G
|
|
Sep 2017
3:11pm, 25 Sep 2017
2,830 posts
|
larkim
Feel free - fmail or in here, I'm not shy. Unless its an offer of a personal pacer - which would be most appreciated, but politely declined! I want to deal with this one in my own headspace, though if circumstances means I wind up running with / near someone from on here on the day I'll welcome it, but I'd rather plan to be self sufficient!
OTOH, if someone on here ends up having the sort of day where on Sandy Lane they want to yell at someone to dig deep and bring home the bacon, I'm sure I'll be all ears at that point!
|
|
Sep 2017
3:21pm, 25 Sep 2017
3,167 posts
|
Windsor Wool
Been away, had to run at lunch and not too slowly as to drag my monthly average down too much
G, you are an exception. In so many ways.
Lark - yes, the data is straight out of the logs; I also thought it weird that the calc asks for the last 8 weeks that incorporates the taper (Daz) and so experimented with a few different approaches, hence the M-3 -> M-1 approach. Yes, the miles in the month M are excluded. It's hardly scientific is it, comparing an imperfect model with an incorrect data set! I do realise the flaws.....
G - 2016 was a great build up. I may be getting equal or better results at the mo' but the data just says that I was able to run more miles as fast I am doing right now and hence the calculator predicts something faster.
Sorry CW, I was hesitant to have posted that. Agree that time should be below your target for the day.
I note that the calculator predicated 3:23 for Clare this time around....
|
