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Sub 3Hr Marathon

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rhb Aug 2024 9:02pm, 24 Aug 2024 2,344 posts	Quote Pin rhb Tomorrow is last run before a rest week, planned 20 as 4 steady then 3 x 3 @ mp 1 steady, into 4 steady. Mapped a route for wsw grid coverage and flat, 10ft per mile average isn't too bad. 😅
rhb Aug 2024 11:38am, 25 Aug 2024 2,345 posts	Quote Pin rhb OS Maps app route plot of 20 miles was 19.2 on the ground but I had a short extension loop by where im staying to make it to 20. 3 x 3mile efforts felt good albeit a bit faster/harder effort than goal pace. Watch was on nav screen mode mostly so bar the occasional check the efforts were run on feel. It was v.breezy as I'm by the coast which made it a bit more on/off especially when I ran along the prom (headwind) then back up the adjacent road (tailwind) during effort 3, miles 13 & 14. Mile 15 headed inland again so was sheltered. Here're the stats. 1) 1mi - 8:07(8:07/mi) 128/156bpm [1039b/mi] 98cal 2) 1mi - 7:55(7:55/mi) 131/137bpm [1038b/mi] 101cal 3) 1mi - 8:00(8:00/mi) 133/137bpm [1064b/mi] 101cal 4) 1mi - 7:55(7:55/mi) 136/142bpm [1077b/mi] 101cal 5) 1mi - 6:52(6:52/mi) 152/158bpm [1043b/mi] 101cal 6) 1mi - 6:38(6:38/mi) 157/161bpm [1041b/mi] 100cal 7) 1mi - 6:32(6:32/mi) 158/162bpm [1032b/mi] 99cal 8) 1mi - 7:59(7:59/mi) 147/161bpm [1175b/mi] 105cal 9) 1mi - 6:42(6:42/mi) 157/162bpm [1053b/mi] 101cal 10) 1mi - 6:44(6:44/mi) 160/163bpm [1078b/mi] 103cal 11) 1mi - 6:30(6:30/mi) 163/173bpm [1059b/mi] 101cal 12) 1mi - 8:07(8:07/mi) 150/165bpm [1217b/mi] 109cal 13) 1mi - 6:41(6:41/mi) 162/178bpm [1082b/mi] 102cal 14) 1mi - 6:27(6:27/mi) 164/167bpm [1059b/mi] 100cal 15) 1mi - 6:34(6:34/mi) 165/168bpm [1083b/mi] 103cal 16) 1mi - 8:06(8:06/mi) 151/166bpm [1224b/mi] 109cal 17) 1mi - 8:10(8:10/mi) 146/154bpm [1191b/mi] 111cal 18) 1mi - 8:13(8:13/mi) 145/150bpm [1192b/mi] 110cal 19) 1mi - 8:07(8:07/mi) 145/150bpm [1176b/mi] 109cal 20) 1mi - 7:54(7:54/mi) 146/152bpm [1154b/mi] 109cal 21) 0.04mi - 17(7:54/mi) 150/151bpm [1184b/mi] 4cal Garmin now predicts 2h57m44s. I hope it is right.
DT19 Aug 2024 7:21pm, 25 Aug 2024 120 posts	Quote Pin DT19 Decent session 8 weeks out. Plenty more time to make gains over September plus cooling temps going into October.
damo_HAC Aug 2024 7:52am, 26 Aug 2024 678 posts	Quote Pin damo_HAC You looked strong for the whole 20 miles, that must give you confidence. Your mostly got faster for each mile in the 3 mile reps too. Great going 👍
damo_HAC Aug 2024 8:06am, 26 Aug 2024 679 posts	Quote Pin damo_HAC I was away at the weekend next to Loch Lomond, so got to run 17.3 miles out and back along the West Highland Way. Not flat, but very runnable for 95% of the route.
jomo_richmond Aug 2024 12:54pm, 28 Aug 2024 211 posts	Quote Pin jomo_richmond I would treat Garmin predicted times for marathons with some caution. I have had them wildly wrong in both directions. A few years ago, my Forerunner consistently predicted I was in 2:35 marathon shape when I was at least ten minutes slower. Last year on the morning of the Tokyo marathon, it predicted I was in 3:01 shape but I ran 2:41. Likewise, for Valencia it predicted I would barely break 3 but I ran 2:41. Despite those actual marathons (plus another this year at 2:43), Garmin has never predicted a marathon time for me faster than 2:55. It is, in fairness, fairly accurate for me on 5ks but it gets noticeably worse as the distances increase and I don't take what it says with any degree of seriousness. What you actually do in your training over a sustained period of time is a much better indicator of where you are in terms of marathon shape versus what Garmin says. (Or at least that has been my experience - other people seem to have had more accurate predictions)
Brunski Aug 2024 1:12pm, 28 Aug 2024 2,435 posts	Quote Pin Brunski I think if you run hilly routes quite often you end up getting a soft marathon prediction, whereas if you run intervals and don’t count the recoveries it can mean your shorter predictions are a bit optimistic. I agree, previous results will point to where you are and then if you compare a few runs like for like in the build up you can get a decent prediction of the shape you’re in. My 10k and HM predictions are usually quite sensible.
SPR Aug 2024 1:37pm, 28 Aug 2024 45,857 posts	Quote Pin SPR I'd be shocked if the predictions @jomo_richmond refers to aren't from two different watches and therefore the old Vs new method. @Brunski Garmin picks up elapsed time so I'd be very surprised if not counting recoveries changes predictions from the same session with recoveries?
Unsafe Breadbin Aug 2024 1:40pm, 28 Aug 2024 96 posts	Quote Pin Unsafe Breadbin Indeed, I still go by the "take your most recent HM time on a comparable course, double it and add 5-10 mins" as a better indicator. My last HM on an undulating course (Congleton) was 1:24 and then ran 2:55 in NY, three weeks later.
jomo_richmond Aug 2024 4:13pm, 28 Aug 2024 212 posts	Quote Pin jomo_richmond SPR wrote:I'd be shocked if the predictions @jomo_richmond refers to aren't from two different watches and therefore the old Vs new method. Correct - my new watch (965) isn't anywhere as impressed by my training/prospects than my old Garmin was.

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