The Sub 3:15 Marathon Thread
331 watchers
Apr 2017
2:14pm, 26 Apr 2017
6,082 posts
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paul the builder
Pacing, eh? Who'd have thought?  Yer man Barrie Smyth (https://medium.com/running-with-data) has been getting a lot of links/posts to his stuff lately. But all he is doing is the most shallow of analysis of results. I think he genuinely thinks it's insightful, but it's appalling. Of course most results are positive split - it's in the very nature of this sport and the marathon event. When you think of all the many many reasons for a positive split, and then make a very short list of the reasons someone might have a negative split - well, what would you expect. I was positive 2m12s on Sunday, and that definitely did not feel like an optimally paced race to me, I was losing time all the way home. Every section of the second half (25-30km, 30-35km, 35-40km) was slower than all the preceding ones. Anyway, everyone knows what I think G - No blog from me, but you could read my training log notes from Sunday and pretend they are a blog if you like. |
Apr 2017
2:51pm, 26 Apr 2017
10,873 posts
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Chrisull
So my thoughts on positive splits, banking time and why so common- and less self-flagellation is called for. If you're targeting sub 3.15 and planning to run 7.20s, but you wake up and don't feel in peak condition, then basically going out there and running 7.30s isn't going to help. The 10 seconds a mile could make a difference if you're running on the edge, but by and large they won't. If you're over the edge, it won't get you back under. So most people will continue and attempt to run 7.20s. And more than that, attempting to run at 7.30 pace is gonna prey on your mind. Why hurt yourself loads to run slightly under your best. I tried last year at Dorset - I ran 3.21 pace for 23 miles and basically when it started hurting it was "oh screw this", just trudge home. Huntsman's blog also gives a good account of being a little outside your target time, and having to ignore your watch. After months of training, you don't get up thinking I'll run 7.30 and it'll be great. You won't have a 100% positive attitude (and it can't be helped). To make a real a difference, you'd need to drop 15-20 seconds a mile I suspect (or more). The reason why progressive runs are so much easier and ultimately don't help some people is because you start at way below your target pace. It might be hard late on, but the whole mindset of the run is changed - not 26 miles at one pace, but only 4 or 5. I have looked at progressive marathon plans for 3.15, and they tend to go start at 7.35 and then move up to 7.20. If 7.20 feels a push, 7.35 isn't suddenly a picnic. More likely you should start at outside 8 minute pace for 3 or 4 miles, see how it feels and then adjust your pace accordingly. But by then you've given away 2 minutes on your target time anyway. Hence why banking seems an attractive option. Rather than give away 2 minutes that you know you probably won't get back, with banking your mind says why not get a couple of minutes ahead of time, and then you'll be able to ease up later, and if you miss your target it won't be that bad is what your mind tells you...and if you are actually in form, then it might be one of those days. It's a dangerous lie to believe, but you can see why it's an all too common one, and not just one made by the inexperienced. |
Apr 2017
3:10pm, 26 Apr 2017
26,613 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
Thanks paul. I will! I guess anyone who does stats and most who read the news with a critical eye will understand that to get insight from data needs more than drawing a line through some results and shouting Eureka! The other justification is that it's "just common sense" that you slow down at the end of a marathon (ad populum or fallacious axiomatic arguments?) I would say it's not common sense that we run a marathon at all. And it is no more common sense that you slow down at the end of a marathon than you slow down at the end of a 5K. How you choose perform on the day in the first mile and in the last mile is combination of your 1. ability (natural + trained), 2. your action/choices (pace, fuel, footwear etc.) and 3. the circumstances (heat, terrain, twistiness, hilliness, natural disaster, man made disaster etc. etc.) You could put sickness/late onset poor health into either 1 or 3 I suppose. But taking away the circumstances and illness and natural disaster etc. then if you are a. trained to 3:14 ability and b. choose to do the right things then you will get the right result. By 2 weeks before the marathon you can't change 1, and you can never change 3, so you can only affect 2. What do you *choose* to do on the day. You choose to slow at the end if you don't put in enough fuel, or you set off too fast, or you None of the above answers the question of whether it is right to choose to slow at the end. I personally think and from my own experience feel it is best to be fresh until as close as possible to the end, and then fully spent just after you cross the line. And that this gives your best overall performance on that day. But maybe I'm kidding myself and when I have done this, usually with a completely even pace (+/- 90 seconds, which is within my tolerance of statistical error - I made this figure up!) I could have gone 5 mins quicker by getting to half way 5 mins quicker, slowing down by 5 mins and doing second half in the same time as I did it, thinking I was near spent at the end. Really? Does that sound likely? Go 25s per mile quicker for a half marathon, then do the second half at the same speed as I believe was my absolute best on that day? Anyhoo....! G
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Apr 2017
3:27pm, 26 Apr 2017
26,614 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
Great "blog" ptb. I've commented. Well done. G
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Apr 2017
3:45pm, 26 Apr 2017
4,415 posts
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postieboy
I agree with you about Barry Smyth's analysis PtB, its a poor generalisation of a nuanced subject. He makes most marathoners appear like headless chickens at the start of a race. There's always a few who lose all sense of reason at the start but they are a tiny minority imho. What goes wrong (if it does) happens for a whole variety of reasons, I don't see that in his conclusions.
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Apr 2017
4:11pm, 26 Apr 2017
1,860 posts
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larkim
The bottom line it seems to me is that the simple position is it is better to try to maintain your speed whilst your effort levels increase over the 26.2 miles. If your effort levels don't increase, you've run too easy. If you slow down despite increasing effort levels to your max, you went off too fast. I think it's also about some of the precise targets we set ourselves. 3:14:59 is a completely arbitrary figure, so if you're well enough trained to run 3:12:30 (but don't realise it), then a flat even pacing 3:14:50 will feel brilliant and perfectly executed. If you'd known on the start line that 3:12:30 was theoretically possible that day (and how on earth would you know that?), would that necessarily involve no slowing at all in the second half? There's nothing wrong with getting to half way "comfortable" (and is half way 13.1 or 20 miles??) and then with a feel for what you've got left, max it out - and by the time fatigue has kicked in, that could well be even pace! |
Apr 2017
4:43pm, 26 Apr 2017
10,935 posts
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paul a
Larkin has it spot on, constant pace, increased effort. The best summary I have seen in a while. Why make it complicated?
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Apr 2017
4:45pm, 26 Apr 2017
1,862 posts
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larkim
[blush]
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Apr 2017
4:51pm, 26 Apr 2017
10,875 posts
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Chrisull
There is a third variable. Sensible starting pace.
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Apr 2017
4:55pm, 26 Apr 2017
10,936 posts
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paul a
To me that isn't really a variable for us non elites. You know the distance and you know your target time, therefore you know your MP. Set out at that pace and maintain it = job done. Banking time and setting out slower than MP are the road to failure IMO. If you can safely speed up towards the end then great, but it really just means your MP was probably too slow all along. |
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