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Oct 2022
8:48am, 8 Oct 2022
19,930 posts
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richmac
Lol forget it was Putin's birthday! Maybe he could send that tractor be got to tow the train away. The collapse of the road bridge isn't being mentioned as much.
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Oct 2022
9:53am, 8 Oct 2022
1,903 posts
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Muttley
The Russians have in the past threatened to retaliate if anything happens to the bridge. I hope there are private conversations from the US and Nato, and maybe China, warning Putin not to do anything really extreme. But the ball is now in his court and after this humiliation he'll want to strike back.
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Oct 2022
10:47am, 8 Oct 2022
9,171 posts
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Northern Exile
The Russians have in the past threatened to retaliate if anything happens to the bridge. I hope there are private conversations from the US and Nato, and maybe China, warning Putin not to do anything really extreme. But the ball is now in his court and after this humiliation he'll want to strike back.
I think you're spot on the button here, if there is anything that's come out of this past two weeks it's the fact that Putin is getting desperate and if he can't win using conventional tactics, then he'll resort to playing dirty. I was in a chat room last night and we were throwing out some scenarios at each other, there was a lot of disagreement but the common theme was that a tactical nuke delivery is definitely on the cards ..... the burning (sic) issue then will be the response. Can NATO really afford to stand by? How fast could it escalate to a strategic exchange? Quickly, I think. Cool heads and extreme care is needed.
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Oct 2022
12:45pm, 8 Oct 2022
1,904 posts
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Muttley
I would like to think that it won't get to that. It's not just a matter of one man pressing a button and up goes the mushroom cloud, there's a whole chain of command from order to execution. I would also like to think that at that stage someone would intervene. After all, Putin and his cronies and all the Russian elite have their families, kids, homes, money in the West. He may be crazed but his henchmen definitely have a survival instinct.
I hope ... ?
My hunch is some kind of strike at Kyiv, possibly targeting Zelensky and the presidential buildings, or a concerted attempt to take out power and water infrastructure.
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Oct 2022
1:14pm, 8 Oct 2022
9,172 posts
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Northern Exile
I know. And I'm right there with you with the hope strategy ........ believe me when I say I've had enough nuclear nightmares for all of us 
If it does come to deployment of a tactical nuke - and one of the things I'm not sure of is the exact C2 structure of such things - it will either be fully executed or the "failure" of the launch protocol will have a fairly profound affect, both in the chain of command and at a leadership level.
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Oct 2022
1:32pm, 8 Oct 2022
13,541 posts
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jda
I wouldn’t be surprised if we see some unanticipated and unexplained failures of civilian infrastructure in western nations. Or rather, I’d be surprised if we didn’t.
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Oct 2022
2:31pm, 8 Oct 2022
9,173 posts
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Northern Exile
I wouldn’t be surprised if we see some unanticipated and unexplained failures of civilian infrastructure in western nations. Or rather, I’d be surprised if we didn’t.
You mean as a consequence of Russian subversive action? That would be tantamount to a declaration of war I think. Personally, I would be surprised if this takes place.
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Oct 2022
7:49am, 10 Oct 2022
9,175 posts
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Northern Exile
Looks like revenge attacks have already started, missile strikes on Kyiv. They must be long-range, curious to know what they're using..... seem to have avoided all the Ukrainian ADF.
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Oct 2022
8:35am, 10 Oct 2022
19,945 posts
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richmac
Couple of thoughts, questions.
Yep, those missiles slipped through untroubled but perhaps the ADF have been moved away from Kyiv as it's not been under attack for months.
But, the response is hardly devastating has it. I can imagine Putin demanding the sky's over Kyiv being blacked out by a cloud of bombers and being told they wouldn't even get within a hundred miles.
Also, but #2 what a distraction, Moscow is losing its shit over this and no one seems to be mentioning the ongoing losses in the East. They've had to deploy what by now must be a dwindling arsenal of 'decent' missiles not to mention the other resources.
Could it be a calculated risk to draw attention away from the front and launch another ground push in the next few days before winter and mud stop progress?
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Oct 2022
1:10pm, 10 Oct 2022
36,893 posts
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LazyDaisy
Hitting civilian targets across Ukraine does nothing to interrupt the Ukrainian army and presumably will only serve to bolster the Ukrainian public's determination (a bit like the Blitz did in the 2nd World War.) It seems like a somewhat desperate throw of the dice.
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