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Mar 2016
9:19am, 3 Mar 2016
535 posts
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Tonybv9
The referendum is a subject of much discussion in my ESOL classes. The evening groups are largely from eastern Europe and they are interested in my views. I said I was leaning strongly towards out, and a Polish guy said "That's interesting, because most of the educated people I've spoken to have said the same."
The OUT campaign is being portrayed as little Englanders, bigots, emotional voters etc, but I keep hearing "I'm European/ I don't want to be cut off/ I won't vote yes because of Farage/Johnson. I haven't heard a convincing argument to stay, just scare stories. The same voices that urged us to join the Euro seem to be predicting the end of the world if we leave.
Leaving the EU doesn't mean towing the UK 100 miles further out into the North Sea, it means leaving a political union. It means removing a vast layer of expensive bureaucracy. It means controlling our borders.
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Mar 2016
9:42am, 3 Mar 2016
8,542 posts
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Chrisull
I dunno some of the scare stories are pretty rational, such as extra costs and extra time over trade deal renegotiations and businesses relocating, and legal EU migrants being deported and treated like they were from outside the EU. Even on this site there are blogs about the shoddy treatment and attitudes on display. I agree it isn't about little Englanders and bigots, there have always been good arguments for leaving (TTIP, EU's vast non democratic aspects , the integration of southern Europe economies with Northern European ones much to the detriment of both sides, the inability of governments to nationalise industries if they want to), but unfortunately the leave campaign has been dominated by the idiots Farage, Johnson, Gove and Galloway. And to pretend there won't be consequences is just complete nonsense. The G20 leaders seem to think so and say it risks kicking off another worldwide depression - who knows, but given China's economy catching a cold, it certainly won't help.
I see today France's economic minister promises to let through migrants to England from Calais should we leave, we kind of forget these petty simmering resentments that characterise a lot of European dealings and they will definitely surface. I also abhor the connecting of "leaving EU" = "closing our borders" which it doesn't at all. We have passport control we are not in Schengen, and the majority comes from non EU countries anyway (see http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34071492) . At least the EU migrants can go back. I suspect if we leave, most people won't notice any difference migration wise, apart from a few less Polish builders, a shortage of labour in some menial tasks, and of course the experiences of those such as families, partners, children on the sharp end of this countries bureaucratic whims, but don't expect the press to report them any time soon.
So yes, I will back staying in, out of fear, because I know we won't be allowed to leave unpunished, no matter how much Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and others admire our stance.
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Mar 2016
10:14am, 3 Mar 2016
12,680 posts
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ChrisHB
Chrisull has framed my thoughts in a few well-chosen words: we won't be allowed to leave unpunished.
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Mar 2016
10:45am, 3 Mar 2016
1,352 posts
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Spleen
When Project Fear types say things like "we won't be allowed to leave unpunished" it makes me want to leave even more. Not less.
Why would anyone want to live under the control of people who think like that? If France only trades with us as some kind of political whim then we don't want to trade with them.
We weren't allowed to *join* the Common Market unpunished either.
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Mar 2016
10:56am, 3 Mar 2016
12,684 posts
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ChrisHB
I am not a supporter of Project Fear. Indeed, what I fear is TTIP, and that comes with the EU.
I imagine the country will muddle through industrially, economically and politically as it mostly does, whatever the outcome of the referendum.
It's just that the principle of cooperation is better than hostility.
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Mar 2016
11:24am, 3 Mar 2016
7,206 posts
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simbil
I don't think it will come down to 'punishment' if we go, just both sides negotiating the best deal they can as is standard in international relations.
With the backdrop of a possibly UK-hostile electorate in parts of the EU, some leaders may push even harder deals in the short term after a Brexit. They will not cut off their nose to spite their face though.
It seems very likely we would need to make concessions to the French in particular if we wanted to carry on operating border controls on their land like we do right now.
They really get nothing out of it - it costs them a load of money to secure our border for us on their soil. The treaty in question has a termination clause where either side can pull the plug at any time.
Why wouldn't they use that to make some gains in negotiations and represent the best interests of their people?
Project Fear and Project Fortress are the extreme ends of the discussion and will probably just shout at each other for the next 4 months and bore everyone to tears 
In between those poles, the reality is that there is a lot of nuance and balancing of pros and cons relative to personal values to make a decision from the head rather than the heart.
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Mar 2016
11:40am, 3 Mar 2016
1,277 posts
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gcwenn
I am voting out (and i am not one of those "little-englanders" or racist bigots), but what scares me most is that if we do vote to leav ethe Cameron will be in charge of negotating the leaving agreement. And look at what he did not achieve last time he did any negotating
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Mar 2016
11:54am, 3 Mar 2016
5,520 posts
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CStar
I'm finding Cameron's constant harking on about a 'reformed EU' increasingly irritating. It is NOT a 'reformed EU' and that's the major issue for me. He has negotiated some minor opt outs, no matter how much he might try and hype them up, but fundamentally the EU is completely unreformed, doesn't see the need for reform and frankly is too bureaucratic to be able to reform itself without some major external force or issue making it do so.
I work for a US company in a Europe-wide role and am by inclination pro-European, but having been firmly on the fence In/Out, I am definitely heading towards the Out side.
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Mar 2016
12:02pm, 3 Mar 2016
536 posts
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Tonybv9
Some of the dreadful consequences of leaving remind me of an abusive relationship. "why doesn't she just leave him?" "Because she's scared of what he might do."
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Mar 2016
12:04pm, 3 Mar 2016
3,855 posts
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Jono.
in for me, not out of fear, but I have yet to still hear an argument for leaving. I honestly believe we are better off in the EU - yesterday I heard that we account for half the defence spending within the EU (Which is a bit shocking, as we only now spend tuppenny ha'penny on things)
SO let us be part of the leadership of the EU and not sit there deluding ourselves that we are some economic power house where nations will be falling over themselves to trade with us - we find it difficult enough to export our goods without relying on a collapse in the value of the pound to make our *things so cheap* & then the idea that we can invite all these multinationals here because we can other favourable tax incentives is, I find disgusting.
isn't that what most people have been complaining against recently.
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