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1 lurker | 115 watchers
1:22pm, 19 Sep 2019
15230 posts
As a stats geek, I look at all the opinion polls, and disregard the ones that fail to make the grade (most of them). Last election YouGov were by far the closest (42-38, compared to 42-41, but they predicted Labour 269 seats compared to 261). I drilled down into their constituency by constituency predictions, and found in Cornwall they called some things that weren't apparent beforehand, such as Labour gaining 2nd place in many of the Cornish constituencies, most of which have been Lib Dem/Con marginals for the past 20-30 years. Don't say they all get it right and some will be politically motivated, but they spotted the Corbyn surge when no-one else (barring perhaps Survation) did.

Also secondly I pointed out, that if you vote Labour in Cornwall, chances are all 6 seats will be Tory. Best case is 4 Tory, 2 LibDem. If Lab/Lib trade tactical voting, then you get 2 Lab, 2 LibDem, 2 Tory. So for a Lab voter it is win/win.

I don't believe the LibDems won't go into coalition with Tories second time, they lost nearly all their seats. It's not a case of political trustworthiness, it's simply survival and looking after their own interests.

Currently Labour are looking at a possible PASOKification scenario, whereby the right takes their votes (Leavers/disaffected Northerners) and the "left" (ahem - by this I mean the left of the two main opponents) take their middle class, urban remain votes. In Scotland this has ALREADY happened. I backed Corbyn at the first vote, but it's clear he has been a disaster as a leader from start to finish. His policies are not the problem, his laissez faire approach to anti-semitism, Brexit and photo-calls with dubious factions are. He could have dealt with all of them, with firm rebuttals. He hasn't and the crows are coming home to roost.
1:56pm, 19 Sep 2019
8707 posts
"I don't believe the LibDems won't go into coalition with Tories second time, they lost nearly all their seats. "

I presume you mean the opposite of this?
2:04pm, 19 Sep 2019
15232 posts
Double negative strikes. Oops, yes you are correct I mean the opposite.

Meanwhile I see a Leaver saying if he dies because insulin gets delayed, it will still have been worth it because "we didn't vote for a deal".

So presumably ... there is an ideologically purer form of "no deal followed by a deal with the EU" which goes "no deal, followed by no deal ever with the EU, we will trade on WTO terms with them in perpetuity". Correct me if I'm wrong here? I mean that seems to be the direction of travel here.
2:46pm, 19 Sep 2019
8708 posts
It's worrying how "we didn't vote for a deal" has been normalised as the retconned version of what the debate about leaving consisted of both prior to and in most of the period since the referendum. Bojo has successfully managed to switch the narrative and rally his "side" behind that thought.

Will be interesting to see if at the stage managed party conferences, Tory especially, whether any "dealers" or "remainers" are given much of a platform to criticise the leadership. Corbyn, for all his faults, is probably more likely to oversee a conference where a wide range of opinions are shared, whereas I'd expect voices of discontent in the Tory ranks will be kept way away from the platform (and even the main conference hall).

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A place where we can debate politics and along the way tick off all these logical fallacies.


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