The War in Ukraine

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Muttley Jun 2023 11:55am, 27 Jun 2023 2,518 posts	Quote Pin Muttley Chatham House on why Russia needs to be defeated and the peaceniks are deluded: chathamhouse.org
Northern Exile Jun 2023 12:58pm, 27 Jun 2023 9,691 posts	Quote Pin Northern Exile Good article, says it like it is. It's the sort of thing that makes painful reading for any government, but nobody likes reality being thrust under their noses.
GordonG Jul 2023 9:55pm, 3 Jul 2023 9,845 posts	Quote Pin GordonG following the 'rebellion', something has been playing on my mind and I notice that today someone made a similar point in the Guardian. What if it was all a ruse? If all the Wagner soldiers join their leader in Belarus, there'd be a 10,000 strong army to the north of Ukraine, hundreds of miles away from where Ukraine's main battle force is. Could Ukraine stop them if they invaded?
LazyDaisy Jul 2023 9:58pm, 3 Jul 2023 38,446 posts	Quote Pin LazyDaisy Yes this was mooted in the Times last week. I hope it's not the case, but 🤷‍♀️
geordiegirl Jul 2023 10:01pm, 3 Jul 2023 20,691 posts	Quote Pin geordiegirl Oh my word that is a scary prospect. They did back down very easy.
richmac Jul 2023 7:16am, 4 Jul 2023 22,394 posts	Quote Pin richmac Could have been a rouse yes. But I don't really believe so. The more this war unfolds the more I just think the characters in charge are batshit crazy. Don't forget it all kicked off after weeks of Prigozhin ranting about a lack of supply and support in Bakhmut, that led the Russian MOD to try to absorb Wagner into the army, then a rocket attack (unverified as far as I can tell) on Wagner by Russian forces that caused Wagner to take Rostov. The occupation of Rostov seems to have been largely bloodless but Wagner did destroy several Russian attack helicopters and a reconnaissance aircraft in action I think this is verified, despite Putins life is cheap mindset it's quite an expensive drama if indeed it's fake. So, Yevgeny Prigozhin, seems to have vanished, also General Sergei Surovikin who may have known about the march remains unseen. Think back to the start of the invasion. It was the northern front from Belarus where the Russian army failed first. This is where the images of the armoured column being destroyed came from. Wagner are far more canny than their Russian counter parts it would be a long and vulnerable advance and don't forget in the Kyiv region Ukraine would have the air cover lacking in the east/south. Ukraine has had a year and more to sure up that Belarusian boarder, hopefully it could be successfully defended with less troops, also as no attack is happening right now I'm guessing that even more mines are going in the ground there. The images of the base Wagner have been given, showing new structures being erected appeared in the press pretty quickly didn't they? So looks as if the west will be letting Ukraine know when ever anyone flushes a loo there. Also the structures that went up look more like tents from the images, hardly conducive for a master plan. I suspect, and it's amateur speculation that Lukashenko has taken an opportunity to look relevant and get a group with a lot of experience at hand hoping to improve his own armies skills, who knows he may even permanently recruit a few of these guys. But, while they are there Ukraine and the west have to do something, it's a distraction and sap's resource. Or, it may be that rather than a full on attack Wagner are used for insurgent operations across the boarder, even more of a distraction, but given how adaptive Ukraine has shown itself to be I think it would be dealt with effectively and end up backfiring on Russia. I that's my thoughts.
Muttley Jul 2023 7:59am, 4 Jul 2023 2,528 posts	Quote Pin Muttley Russia is the land of conspiracy theories but I don't think it was a ruse. The mutineers shot down a number of aircraft, including reportedly a couple of rare electronic warfare choppers and an airborne command post. About a dozen aircrew perished, and they are longer and costlier to replace than mobilized troops on the front line. And Surovikin is commander of the Aerospace Forces, so doubly unlikely even though Russian commanders rarely care about the lives of their subordinates. I'm inclined to think that Prigozhin got above his station and thought he could take on the generals, who were trying to fold his private army into the regular military. A business dispute rather than an attempt to seize power. But as they say: If you think you know what's going on in Russia and why, you haven't been paying attention.
Northern Exile Jul 2023 8:36am, 4 Jul 2023 9,697 posts	Quote Pin Northern Exile I also don't think it was a ruse, far from it. A lot of the major land analysts are saying that the actual material cost of this little bit of insurrection was far higher than is being reported via OS channels.
Fields Jul 2023 9:29am, 8 Jul 2023 9,643 posts	Quote Pin Fields Cluster bombs being sent to Ukraine by the US. High chance of unexploded ordinance remaining for decades and of particular risk to children. Future war crime. theguardian.com No surprise given the US track record of imperialist actions against many countries around the world. e.g. Laos is the most bombed country per capita and the US weren’t even ever at war with them
Pothunter Jul 2023 4:43pm, 8 Jul 2023 8,044 posts	Quote Pin Pothunter Very disappointing to read that one Fields. Apparently Russia already using them but still don’t see the reason the respond in that manner.

About This Thread

Maintained by Northern Exile

Please feel free to post anything of consequence, links to reports, analysis, ways in which we can support the people of Ukraine. Not a forum for bashing the UK government, the politics thread is a good place for that.

Royal United Services Institute - rusi.org
Bellingcat - bellingcat.com
Human Rights Watch - hrw.org
Reuters - reuters.com
BBC Russian Service - bbc.com
Ria Novosti - ria.ru
Russian Online TV - ontvtime.ru
Russian TV News - tv-novosti.ru
UK Government Response - gov.uk
UK MOD Twitter Feed - twitter.com
ABC News - abcnews.go.com
Wion Russia - Ukraine - wionews.com

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The War in Ukraine

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