The sub 1:30 half thread
164 watchers
Mar 2020
9:28am, 11 Mar 2020
10,576 posts
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larkim
Unless you think that world records (even by age) are soft at the longer distances, there shouldn't be a good reason to think that WAVA is a poor comparator. Perhaps in women's racing there is some progress still to be made as there's still an upward trend to close the gap to the "correct" physiological one of about 10-12% across all ages, but there shouldn't be a good reason why a marathon WAVA is objectively any harder (or easier) than a 5k WAVA, I don't think.
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Mar 2020
9:31am, 11 Mar 2020
15,807 posts
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Chrisull
There shouldn't be , but there is. I think it's the unpredictability of how your body reacts after going through glycogen depletion.
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Mar 2020
9:47am, 11 Mar 2020
34,402 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
I think it's lack of training...!
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Mar 2020
9:47am, 11 Mar 2020
34,403 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
Ooh, I'm turning into Gobi with my challenging, short injections! 
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Mar 2020
9:48am, 11 Mar 2020
34,404 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
I really must give 400m, 200m, 100m track masters (super vets now actually, or vintage or whatever V50 is called!) G
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Mar 2020
9:52am, 11 Mar 2020
15,808 posts
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Chrisull
Nah - I was better when I did less but faster training. Separately, I've been carrying a glute issue since the half, I think that's one of the reasons I slowed so much second half, my legs ached and I couldn't stretch out, I'm now thinking possible small grade tear in glute. It's only there at full stretch/stride, can't notice it most of the time, but the moment I aggravate it (stepping over a stream kind of thing), it hurts and then aches for a bit afterwards. |
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Mar 2020
9:58am, 11 Mar 2020
10,579 posts
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larkim
As it's "world bests" by age, you've got to assume (certainly at the classic middle aged bloke ages) that those who hold the age 43, 44, 45, etc world bests have given it their all and have been drawn from a wide enough pool to give the data some credibility. I can agree that say for 60+yo the dataset is smaller of people who have run marathons off ideal training, so the chance of the "best of the best" coming through is lower (though I suspect some of those who hold those records would disagree), but I'm not convinced that there are insufficient world bests at ages up to around 55 across all distances for the data to be quite reliable. There may be a differential impact of age across distances, so if the decline from 35yo to 55yo over a 5k is (say) 5%, it might be higher over a marathon 9or maybe not). But WAVA would account for that in it's curves. |
Mar 2020
1:42pm, 11 Mar 2020
365 posts
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riggsy99
My reasoning for thinking that WAVA can give differing results for comparison between results is based on my scores that’s all so not scientific My last half marathon has a worse score than my last 10k despite the half been faster than predicted from my 10k and my 10k been slower than predicted by the half but we are only talking a small percentage |
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Mar 2020
2:07pm, 11 Mar 2020
10,583 posts
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larkim
I think the flaw there is you're comparing two models so they won't ever properly match. WAVA *ought* to be based on what people have actually done. Whereas the other predictors (usually Reigel) are just exponential extrapolations using a fixed figure. Add into that the fact that Fetch's WAVA calcs are out of date too*, and that for some distances (though not 10k and HM) Fetch's calculator uses interpolation to give assumed figures where there isn't a fixed WAVA figure available, and the whole thing gets quite complex. *The latest WAVA tables are actually quite punishing for males in their 40s doing 10k-HM distances 38:00 for 10k would be 78.88 on Fetch, but 77.11 on the latest WAVA tables, a 1:25 half would be 76.87 on Fetch but only 74.71 on latest WAVA. See howardgrubb.co.uk for the tables that Fetch uses and howardgrubb.co.uk for the latest set. I'm crossing my fingers Fetch doesn't change them!! |
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Mar 2020
2:11pm, 11 Mar 2020
366 posts
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riggsy99
Thanks for that larkim
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