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Riegel Value for predictions on training log and race times calculator

2 watchers
SPR
May 2013
3:21pm, 21 May 2013
18469 posts
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SPR
There used to be a bit saying that the predictions were calculated using riegel value X.XX

I'm talking about here: http://www.fetcheveryone.com/training-calculators-racetimes.php

You entered a time, it gave you predictions, and then told you what riegel value it was using for the predictions.
Oct 2013
10:40am, 16 Oct 2013
720 posts
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Revbarbarag
Reviving this thread rather than starting a new one - save the whale, and all that.

I've just discovered the predictions tab on the training log - how cool is that? As I knuckle down to building my base for a little plod around London next April, I'm taking comfort in the fact that the best time predictions so far are coming from either my longest runs (which are... ummm.... long), and my parkruns (in which I am surrounded by other runners, and egged on by cheering crowds. Well... clapping person).

My thinking is that, as I gradually ramp up the distance of my long runs, the prediction will become more and more accurate - is that fair? And if I'm able to ramp up the distance without losing much pace, then the prediction should also come down.

Hoping so, as the prediction for my last couple of long runs was 6:4x, and I would dearly love it to be 5:xy, where x in the second example is no greater than 2. But the most important thing is to finish and still be able to stand upright afterwards. Anyway - less than six months to go, but long enough to make a big difference, eh?

Sit back and wait for the experts of fetchland to comment.
Oct 2013
10:47am, 16 Oct 2013
69789 posts
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santababy
You're right. The ones in grey are more of a guess as you've not hit *the distance* the darker ones give a more accurate prediction. The more you do and more so with races you'll see your predictions tumble.

Last month the predictions for me were one second out on 2 races! so they're pretty good
Oct 2013
10:49am, 16 Oct 2013
69790 posts
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santababy
just had look back, after my last half Fetch predicted 3.40.37 for Marathon couple weeks ago I got 3.40.41
Oct 2013
10:55am, 16 Oct 2013
13534 posts
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fetcheveryone
Though they show an equivalent time at 'popular' distances, it's probably not a fantastic idea to base your race plans solely around your training run times.

Yes, your long runs will give you an idea of what sort of pace you can sustain over a long period of time, but your long runs should also be deliberately slower than your planned marathon pace.

Have a look at this:
http://www.fetcheveryone.com/cms-46
for some advice on long runs, and this:
http://www.fetcheveryone.com/cms-37
for the best technique I have come up with so far for predicting marathon time from half marathon *race* time.

Hope it's going well :-)
Oct 2013
11:01am, 16 Oct 2013
69792 posts
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santababy
well i base my life around those predictions
Oct 2013
11:01am, 16 Oct 2013
69793 posts
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santababy
:P
Mar 2015
6:53am, 9 Mar 2015
4659 posts
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Rosehip
Morning :) reviving old thread to ask what it is I've done to make the predictions in the table in my log look very different from those in glasses view of the individual runs?
Apr 2015
9:03pm, 20 Apr 2015
110 posts
  • 0
FrightenedMan
I've just noticed this too!

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Maintained by SPR
How is your personal Riegel value calculated on this site? Is it solely based on PBs, or does it loo...

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