Marathon time predictors... are they crap or am I

4 watchers
Mar 2016
7:49pm, 13 Mar 2016
11218 posts
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Have a look at The Flying Runner. They have a pacing calculator which you can use to create a pace band based on your predicted finishing time. It takes into account your likely drop-off in pace based on research done by ARU on pacing at last year's VMLM.
Mar 2016
9:06pm, 13 Mar 2016
9056 posts
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Thanks Rich; I may well try that on my next PB attempt.
Mar 2016
9:11pm, 13 Mar 2016
11220 posts
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Or you could have a look at Christof's Tanda Doohickle. Enter your weekly training distance and your average pace for the week. Christof and Kevin have found it to be very accurate.
Mar 2016
9:24pm, 13 Mar 2016
2411 posts
  • 0
Windsor Wool
I'm afraid the others are right….you need some more base mileage to be able to convert up through to the longer distance. It's just a different beast.
Mar 2016
9:49pm, 13 Mar 2016
36 posts
  • 0
M.ister W
My mileage recording is sporadic so looking at my training log isn't going to give much useful information.

The article that someone linked to is very interesting and it's reassuring that not only am I not the only one but I'm in the majority.
Mar 2016
10:48pm, 13 Mar 2016
133 posts
  • 0
Like the other have said I consider the predictor just a comparison of potential if one trains each distance to the same standard.

I do not have the dedication or commitment to able to train to the same standard say as I do for a 10k as I would for a marathon (nor am I afraid to admit it). I do not think I could ever train the 50 to 70 miles a week to run ones maximum in a marathon. Which is why I am happy to retire on 1 marathon, it took 5 years to motivate myself to run one, I was only really training for a sub-4 hour marathon (even though I know I could do it much faster if I really wanted it enough), and is why I ran a half marathon the week before.

I run because I enjoy it and to keep fit not because I want to get PB's I never want running to feel like a chore. Fair play to those who have the dedication /motivation to run marathons train properly, they are much better runner than me.

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Maintained by M.ister W
According to all the race time predictors I'm terrible at marathons. I haven't done many but I ha...

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