Marathon Predictions from Half Marathon times

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fetcheveryone Apr 2013 11:20am, 18 Apr 2013 12,621 posts	0 fetcheveryone X-post - but less than 5% of runners get 1.06, and less than 3% beat it. That's based on runners who have run five races at half and five at full marathon distance.
GregP Apr 2013 11:56am, 18 Apr 2013 66,419 posts	0 GregP Is there some journal you can publish this in? It is just fabulous stuff. Chapeau. Srs.
the vicious chicken Apr 2013 12:08pm, 18 Apr 2013 850 posts	0 the vicious chicken Clever calculator - within 2-and-a-half minutes for me!
Nelly Apr 2013 1:55pm, 18 Apr 2013 880 posts	0 Nelly Thanks Fetch, a bit of playing around shows males need to be aiming for a 1:22:05 HM to equate to a sub 3hr marathon. Now I'm wondering whether my long term ambition is even more out of touch.
fetcheveryone Apr 2013 3:04pm, 18 Apr 2013 12,623 posts	0 fetcheveryone That's not necessarily the case. What this shows is a typical case. But there are some runners who convert better than others, and that, I'm sure, is in this training thing that everyone's talking about
FML Apr 2013 3:08pm, 18 Apr 2013 7,878 posts	0 FML Think I have issues over the longer distance, according to recent HM should be 4:40 for the marathon, but my 2 marathons have been 5:44 and 6:44. I have an ITB issue which is more impacted over the longer distance. A dream would be sub 5 hours
jennywren Apr 2013 3:09pm, 18 Apr 2013 10,304 posts	0 jennywren I think this puts my (admittedly ambitious) target out of reach I suspect its right though.
Wriggling Snake Apr 2013 3:42pm, 18 Apr 2013 3,958 posts	0 Wriggling Snake Ah yes typical case, always remember the statistical bell curve, you could be better than the average case, lots better.
jennywren Apr 2013 3:45pm, 18 Apr 2013 10,305 posts	0 jennywren I'm much quicker than I should be over short distances (5k and 10k) but always struggle to maintain pace in marathons. I got a bit carried away after running well at Trimpell 20 but that extra 6.2 miles might do for me I suppose.
Nelly Apr 2013 3:46pm, 18 Apr 2013 882 posts	0 Nelly Or lots worse... My current HM PB to Mara PB agrees within 20s with Fetch's formula, so I'm currently average so would expect to be average for my long term target (if I was to get there!)