Marathon Prediction White Paper

14 watchers
Jun 2019
4:10pm, 3 Jun 2019
7,721 posts
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larkim
Yes, but if you achieve a HM of 100min on, say, 15 mpw it does at least give you an idea of what volume you might need to put in to achieve a comparable result if you've done the HM x 2 + 10mins, or similar.

None of the predictors guarantee the outcome, but they are at least more useful when they convert the expected outcome into some sense of the training input that may be required to achieve it too.

And even in the guys study, there were significant outliers on both sides - so there'd be no reason to imagine that everyone fits the pattern.
Jun 2019
8:45pm, 3 Jun 2019
331 posts
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snayak
Someone posted a link on the sub 3:15 thread to a great podcast about a marathoner that advocates the low intensity, high volume training approach citing the Tanda study.

extramilest.com

Worth a listen.
Jun 2019
9:02pm, 3 Jun 2019
34,286 posts
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Lip Gloss
Prediction 4.00.59 outcome 4.56.05 . Don't think I will try again to get his prediction time ;-)
Jun 2019
9:04pm, 3 Jun 2019
1,933 posts
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FenlandRunner
We are all different, I achieved my best marathon time by following a similar training regime to Project Joker.
Jun 2019
10:35pm, 3 Jun 2019
14,708 posts
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Bazoaxe
This looks spookily accurate for me. It’s predicted only one sub three marathon. And I have yet to run one.
jda
Jun 2019
10:50pm, 3 Jun 2019
4,575 posts
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jda
We should swap Bazo, if I believed it I'd never even have tried for sub 3 :-)
Jun 2019
10:55pm, 3 Jun 2019
4,511 posts
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Fragile Do Not Bend
The prediction was way out for me. Predicted 4:38:51 on both occasions but actual times were 5:48:20 and 6:32:19

Neither marathon was flat, I ran/walked them, and at the end of each lap I stopped to eat cake. 😅
Jun 2019
10:58pm, 3 Jun 2019
4,512 posts
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Fragile Do Not Bend
Looking at that prediction again, I’d have to run faster than my half marathon PB pace to achieve it. 😳 My PB half marathon was flat, all running and no cake stops.
Jun 2019
11:31pm, 3 Jun 2019
17,625 posts
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Dvorak
Great, all I have to do is jog 25km a week, spread over four days, and I'll be sub 4:30.

Er, naw.

Not even if (having read the study) I took 10 kg off.
Jun 2019
9:54am, 4 Jun 2019
4,696 posts
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minardi
I just tried this "Tanda predicts 3.56.54" I'm still laughing 10 minutes later

About This Thread

Maintained by fetcheveryone
I was pointed at the following publication from Giovanni Tanda at the University of Genova:

https...

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