Dear Scottish Fetchies
66 watchers
Feb 2021
11:20am, 24 Feb 2021
2,101 posts
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Surelynot
The two votes can't be equated as there are at least 5 parties taking part in the Holyrood election which is about more than the future referendum in a system specifically designed not to produce 50% of the vote for a single party with a mixture of FPTP and a transerable vote. The referendum is a binary choice between two outcomes that will deliver a majority for one or the other. Am I being slow here? |
Feb 2021
11:31am, 24 Feb 2021
19,019 posts
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Bazoaxe
......but Nicola plans to use this vote to gain a mandate for a referendum ? I agree the two votes are different, but there is an indication from one to the other and SNP will make the Holyrood election about something that it really shouldnt be. Anyway, its not something we can sort out here, we need to see what each party proposes and then the outcome. I see 4 possibles: 1) Non SNP minority government. Ok thats not really a possible but it kills Independence for the time being 2) SNP/Green minority - this just prolongues the current position and there will be no referendum but just the ongoing debate. 3) SNP/Green majority - case for another vote but risks being denied which introduces a whole new dynamic 4) SNP/Green majority with 50+ plus - undeniable case for another referendum If I am honest I think we need another referendum to put this to bed one way or the other and if we go into it, it should be on the basis that whatever the outcome, thats it done. |
Feb 2021
12:34pm, 24 Feb 2021
6,983 posts
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paul the builder
No Baz, if this one is Yes, then it goes to best-of-three 
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Feb 2021
12:49pm, 24 Feb 2021
19,020 posts
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Bazoaxe
I think it should go to away goals (i.e. add the 2 outcomes together) and see who wins
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Feb 2021
12:50pm, 24 Feb 2021
2,102 posts
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Surelynot
Baz - 'mandate' does not equate to a 50% + 1 majority in our political system. If it did, no government would ever have a mandate. 'SNP will make the Holyrood election about something that it really shouldn't be.' I completely disagree with that. Why is it not appropriate in your view to have a manifesto commitment from a party to hold a referendum if you can secure the parliamentary majority to have one? That's how politics works. |
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Feb 2021
12:54pm, 24 Feb 2021
19,021 posts
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Bazoaxe
SN I think there is a difference between a mandate to govern and a mandate for a referendum on such a big matter...but thats just my view. I have said that an Independence majority of MSPs does give the SNP the right to seek a referendum, but: 1) Boris could say no as support is not clear (could be a dangerous game) 2) Nicola might not have the confidence to risk it (equally dangerous in a different way) |
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Feb 2021
12:57pm, 24 Feb 2021
2,104 posts
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Surelynot
21 consecutive polls and a mandate to go for a referendum would be too good an opportunity to miss. She'd be out on her ear if she didn't take that chance. |
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Feb 2021
12:59pm, 24 Feb 2021
19,023 posts
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Bazoaxe
She might be out on her ear before then....... What though if a minority administration is the outcome ? |
Feb 2021
1:01pm, 24 Feb 2021
2,240 posts
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JRitchie
What is clear is that May's Hollyrood election is now a proxy for an independence referendum. Which means rather disappointingly that all of the other (significantly more important in my view) issues the Scottish government is actually "accountable" for is just not up for debate. We were provided devolution in the 1990s and as a consequence Scotland has one of the most devolved powers in the world and yet most of the oxygen of the news for many years is around Independence and breaking that system. Both sides promote this position " A vote for the SNP is a vote to split the Union" and "A Vote for SNP is the only way to achieve Independence". Why should we complain about being held back by Westminster when we are actually pretty good at holding ourselves back through this debate. |
Feb 2021
2:18pm, 24 Feb 2021
37,792 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
Very good points JR. It would be great to get it put to bed one way or the other. I said over on Politics thread, I'd stop looking for Scottish independence if UK changed to PR / ATV / STV or whatever and it led to a more representative coalition of Green / Socialist / Liberal in government. I like the idea of best of 3. What about sudden death (send out canvassers and the first to 1M wins? Or make it a phone in? Or online? Saturday Night Breakaway. The Voice. The Masked Scotsperson?) G
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